Tag: Climate Challenges

COP26, the 26th annual summit of the United Nations climate change conference, is currently taking place in Glasgow. In this article, Hana Ketley looks back over the first week of COP26 and discusses the key pledges and targets that have been announced so far.

Emissions targets

Ahead of COP26, many countries announced new emissions targets, including India, which aims to halve its energy emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2070, and Nepal, which now aims to reach net zero by 2045. Net zero refers to a balance between the amount of greenhouse gas emissions emitted and removed from the atmosphere, and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°, the world must reach net zero by 2050 to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Several countries have committed to meeting this target, with 80% of the world’s economy now striving for net zero emissions. Many of these targets, however, are under discussion, in policy documents or as proposed legislation, rather than being enacted into law. Additionally, several countries have not updated their targets, such as China, which continues to aim for net zero emissions by 2060, a full ten years after the recommended date. Many climate groups and critics are questioning the validity of these pledges, a theme that continues through many of the outcomes from the first week of COP26. As many of the targets set at previous COPs have not been met, there are doubts that they will be achieved this time.

Furthermore, the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, consisting of 15 of the world’s leading climate scientists, have produced a report warning that achieving global net zero by 2050 may no longer be enough to avoid many of the worst impacts of rising global temperatures. The report, titled ‘The Final Warning Bell’, was released in August 2021 and builds upon the most recent report from the IPCC’s Working Group 1, which was released earlier in the same month. Using the IPCC’s insight, the Climate Crisis Advisory Group determined that meeting the 2050 target will only result in a 50% likelihood of preventing average global temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. They suggest that aiming for net-negative emissions by 2050, rather than net zero, will provide countries and industries with the best chance of curbing global warming. Only two countries, Suriname and Bhutan, have achieved net zero (based on self-assessment) and only a few others, such as Finland, Germany and Sweden, have net zero ambitions that are set to be met before 2050. As a result, current global objectives are unlikely to fulfil the proposed target set by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.

Deforestation

The Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use, which aims to cease and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030, was one of the first major pledges made during COP26. This historic pact was signed by nearly 130 world leaders, and has been hailed by some as the summit’s first big achievement. As the countries that signed are responsible for roughly 85% of the world’s forests, this pledge might have a considerable influence on deforestation and climate change if it results in effective action. Alongside this commitment, 12 nations, including the UK, U.S., Canada, France and Germany, have also collectively pledged to mobilise £8.75 billion of public funding over the next five years. This fund will be utilised by developing nations for a variety of schemes, including supporting the restoration of degraded land, combating wildfires and defending the rights of indigenous communities. This is backed by the commitment of more than 30 major financial institutions, such as Axa and Aviva, to look at eliminating commodity-driven deforestation from their investment and lending portfolios by 2025. They have also agreed to several other stipulations, including assessing the amount of their investments that are linked to deforestation by the end of 2022. By the end of 2023, they must disclose this information and their mitigation efforts and, by 2025, publicly report credible progress on their goals.

But, due to a lack of detail on enforcement, these pledges on deforestation have already been criticised. The success of this summit and the fight against climate change will be determined by how well all the pledges launched and signed during COP26 are implemented. Many signatories have not specified how this implementation will be monitored, nor has it been defined how countries will be held accountable if they fail to follow through on their commitments. Many critics point to other pledges to reduce or halt deforestation that have not been fulfilled, as many voluntary pledges, such as the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests, have failed to deliver on their promises. One of the key goals of the 2014 pledge was to reduce the rate of forest loss globally by half by 2020, but the rate of tropical primary forest loss has actually increased since the signing.

When questioned about the reality of meaningful action and willingness to halt deforestation by countries that have signed this pledge, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated that the emphasis may be placed on the financial sector. During the press conference on 2nd November, he suggested that these goals would most likely be reached through the “agreement of companies around the world that they will no longer support or invest in these communities”. He also suggested, however, that the pressure on these banks, financial institutions and companies to meet their promises will come from consumers. This is similarly reflected in the proposed Treasury rules, which would require most large UK corporations and financial institutions to release a detailed public plan by 2023 outlining how they will transition to a low-carbon future in line with the UK’s net zero 2050 target. Any commitments suggested by these companies would not be made mandatory by the UK government, as these rules only aim to increase transparency and accountability. Consumers must once again be relied upon to exert pressure on these firms to make serious changes. There are strong criticisms for this lack of regulation by the government, with many arguing that, without legal obligations, these pledges are doomed to fail.

Methane

More than 100 world leaders have also signed the U.S. and EU-led pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30% over the next decade from 2020 levels. Methane has a higher heat-trapping capacity compared with carbon dioxide but breaks down in the atmosphere considerably faster, and so it is hoped that cutting methane emissions could have a rapid impact on limiting global warming. The Global Methane Pledge was first announced in September and it now has half of the top 30 methane emitters as signatories. Critically, however, China, Russia and India, three of the top five emitters, have not yet signed on. Australia, which is among the top ten emitters, has also refused to sign. In 2018, these four countries emitted 2.894 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, accounting for around 35% of the global total of 8.175 million tonnes (calculated from data sourced from The World Bank, sourced from CAIT data: Climate Watch). The countries that have signed up constitute “nearly half the global methane emissions”, according to Biden, but the pledge’s impact may be limited without the backing of these large emitters. 

Further pledges

Other important key pledges and outcomes from the first week include:

• The Breakthrough Agenda, an international plan launched by the UK to help deliver clean and affordable technology everywhere by 2030
• The Global Energy Alliance, a group of philanthropic foundations and international development banks that announced a $10.5 billion fund for emerging economies to switch to renewable energies, with the goal of raising $100 billion in public and private capital
• The Coal Pledge, which has been signed by more than 40 countries, pledging to end all investment in new coal power generation and to phase out coal power in the 2030s for major economies and the 2040s for developing economies. Around $18 billion has been pledged to assist this transition. Notably, China and the U.S., two of the biggest coal-dependant countries, have not signed up.

These, as with all other pledges launched and signed during COP26, will only have a significant influence on our fight against climate change if they are effectively implemented and translated into tangible action. While there is cautious optimism that the pledges and targets announced during the first week of COP26 could be sufficient to keep global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C, there are mounting concerns that they may not be enough to keep the rise below 1.5°C. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that these new promises could reduce projected global warming to 1.8°C. This is better than the prior predictions of 2.4–4.8°C, based on high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but it is still above the Paris Agreement’s desired 1.5°C limit. A rise above 1.5°C will most likely see a worsening in the negative impacts on resources, the intensity and frequency of extreme events, ecosystems, biodiversity, lives and livelihoods, making adaptation to climate change much more difficult.

References and useful resources

IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds)]. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/

A news report on the countries that are now aiming for net zero: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-11-01-80-world-economy-now-aiming-net-zero-not-all-pledges-are-equal

Net Zero Tracker, showing the target year by country and information on their status in law or policy, presence of a detailed plan, reporting mechanism, use of international offset credits and greenhouse gas coverage: https://zerotracker.net/

A news report on the Climate Crisis Advisory Group’s August report on the aims for global net zero by 2050: https://www.edie.net/news/9/Go-beyond-net-zero-and-target-net-negative-emissions–climate-scientists-urge/

The Climate Crisis Advisory Group, 2021. The Final Warning Bell. [online] Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354144163_The_Final_Warning_Bell

The COP26 website information on the Glasgow Leader’s declaration on forests and land use: https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/

The UK Government’s press release on the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-100-leaders-make-landmark-pledge-to-end-deforestation-at-cop26

World Bank’s data on methane emissions: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.METH.KT.CE?end=2018&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1970&view=chart

The UK Government’s Press release on the new Breakthrough Agenda: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/world-leaders-join-uks-glasgow-breakthroughs-to-speed-up-affordable-clean-tech-worldwide

The New York Times report of the Global Energy Alliance: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/world/europe/global-energy-alliance-fund-cop26.html

The Guardian news report on the Coal Pledge and its criticisms: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/03/more-than-40-countries-agree-to-phase-out-coal-fired-power

Comments by the head of the International Energy Agency on the impacts of pledges made this week at COP26: https://news.sky.com/story/cop26-climate-pledges-could-limit-projected-warming-to-1-8c-says-energy-agency-boss-12459562

IPPC. 2021. Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

In the lead up to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in November of this year, we are writing a series of articles looking at some of the toughest global climate crisis challenges that we are currently facing. This article looks at the use of fossil fuels and their contribution to climate change.

What are fossil fuels?

Fossil fuels include coal, natural gas, heavy oils and petroleum. They are formed from the decomposition of carbon-based organisms that were buried millions of years ago. This created carbon and hydrogen-rich deposits below the earth’s surface, which can be extracted and burned for energy. Fossil fuels are non-renewable, a finite resource that is being used much faster than can be replenished, but this type of fuel currently supplies around 80% of the world’s energy.

How are they extracted and what are the impacts?

There are several methods of extracting fossil fuels, depending on the type, amount and surrounding area. The main method for extracting solid fossil fuels, such as coal, is mining, where buried resources are exposed by digging or scraping. This can be underground, on the surface or even at sea. Land-use changes associated with mining, such as the construction of access roads, processing plants and other facilities, and the mining itself, have a wide range of environmental impacts. The extraction of coal can pollute local water sources with toxic chemicals and heavy metals, reduce the quality of soil, involve excess dumping of rock and soil and strip the land of vegetation. There are also some very destructive techniques such as the use of explosives, which can have a widespread impact on the local wildlife.

For liquid or gaseous fuels, the method most often used is drilling. This has similar land-use change impacts to mining, but drilling also involves pipelines, the building of which can cause thousands of miles worth of damage. There is also the threat of spillage, such as recently occurred in North Dakota, where nearly 41,000 gallons of wastewater was spilt from a broken pipeline. Oilfield wastewater, also called produced water, contains saltwater and drilling chemicals, including heavy metals. It is not drinkable and can have serious environmental consequences when it’s spilt.

Fracking is another method used to extract gas. The environmental impacts from this method include the release of carcinogenic chemicals into water sources, earthquakes and reduced water availability due to the high volume needed for the fracking process.

What happens when we burn fossil fuels?

Burning fossil fuels generates energy, which is converted to electricity and used for industrial processes and transportation. Since the industrial revolution, our use of fossil fuels has been steadily increasing. The use of fossil fuels is thought to be the primary cause of climate change. Burning these fuels releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at a much faster rate than it can be removed by the carbon cycle. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse effect and increasing global average temperatures.

Burning fuels also increases the acidity of precipitation, causes ocean acidification and emits air pollutants, causing respiratory disease.

What are the alternatives?

There are many different alternatives to fossil fuels, each with their own benefits and drawbacks. From hydrogen gas, tidal energy, wind energy, geothermal power, biomass energy, biofuels to wave and solar power, there are several options that companies and countries can use to reduce their carbon footprint. The benefits are reduced direct emissions, the potential for lower fuel prices and that they are renewable energy sources. However, some have their own negative impacts on the environment. For example, wind farms can be harmful to birds, some solar panels are manufactured using heavy metals and are difficult to recycle, and hydrogen gas is mostly produced from fossil fuels. Therefore, simply switching over from fossil fuels to renewable is not an easy process.

However, a higher percentage of the UK’s electricity was powered by renewable energy than fossil fuels in 2020. Renewables powered 43% of our electricity compared to the 38.5% powered by fossil fuels. Together with nuclear power, 59% of the UK’s electricity was powered by low carbon sources. This demonstrates that large-scale use of renewable energy is possible and that we are taking steps on our way to becoming a net-zero country.

What is net zero and is it really the solution?

Net zero is the balance between the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. This can refer to the emissions of individual people, companies, countries and the world. It does not mean that fossil fuels will no longer be used however, it instead means that the amount of emissions released is the same as the amount removed. This can be achieved without completely cutting out our emissions output by increasing the removal of greenhouse gases through techniques such as planting trees or capturing carbon during industrial processes. While finding a balance is an important step in tackling climate change as it will reduce global warming, it is not the final solution. The continued use of fossil fuels will have other negative environmental implications, even if our emissions are balanced.

True zero refers to the complete removal of carbon-emitting fuel types from our energy supply or carbon offsetting when using these fuels when renewable energy supplies fall short. This also includes cutting all greenhouse gas emissions, including from sources other than fossil fuels. Carbon negative refers to a carbon footprint that is less than neutral and therefore is removing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it is adding. Only two countries are thought to have reached net zero, Bhutan and Suriname, and both claim to be carbon negative. However, both countries still use fossil fuels.

We are already seeing the effects of climate change and the increased average global temperatures. At the 1.5°C increase that the Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise to, we will see even more serious consequences (you can read more about this in our blog: Climate Challenges: What is COP26 and Why is it Important?). One way to truly tackle climate change is to begin reducing atmospheric carbon and greenhouse gases to pre-industrial revolution levels, hopefully allowing average global temperatures to also reduce to pre-industrial revolution levels. To achieve this, more countries must become either true zero or carbon negative.

Summary

• The extraction and burning of fossil fuels have serious negative environmental consequences, including temperature increase, air pollutants and water contamination. The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has steadily been increasing since the industrial revolution.
• There are multiple alternative energy sources, including renewables, but these can also have negative impacts on the environment. They powered more electricity in the UK than fossil fuels in 2020.
• Net zero is the balance between greenhouse gases produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. True zero refers to cutting all carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon negative means removing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than is being added. One way to tackle climate change is for countries to aim for true zero or carbon negative to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Useful resources

• Martins, F., et al. (2019). Analysis of Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption and Environmental Impacts in European Countries. Energies, 12(6): 1-11
• This article on renewable energy generation in the UK in 2020: https://www.offshorewind.biz/2021/03/25/renewable-energy-outperforms-fossil-fuels-in-uk/

In the lead up to COP26 in November of this year, we are writing a series of articles looking at some of the toughest global climate crisis challenges that we are currently facing. But what exactly is COP26?

COP26 is the 26th annual summit of the United Nations climate change conference, taking place in Glasgow from 31st October to 12th November 2021. The Conference of Parties, known as COP, is responsible for monitoring and reviewing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its implementation. The UNFCCC is an international treaty acknowledging the existence of anthropogenic climate change and provides the framework for climate change negotiations.

Over 190 world leaders, along with thousands of government representatives, businesses, negotiators and citizens, will convene in Glasgow, Scotland, to update plans for reducing emissions. During these summits, countries set out Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to commit how much they will reduce their emissions. COP26 was delayed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but this year there will be updated plans for the global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Suggested to be one of the most important climate crisis summits ever, COP26 must be divisive to limit global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels ahead of the approaching 2030. 

The history

The convention began in 1992 during the ‘Earth Summit’ in Rio de Janeiro. The UNFCCC treaty was adopted two years later and has been ratified by 197 countries. The COP began meeting each year from 1995, to review the implementation of the UNFCCC and amend commitments and targets. This will be the first time the UK has hosted the COP.

In 2010, countries committed to limit the global average temperature increase to a threshold of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels by signing the Cancun Agreements. Further research and several reports from sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that to avoid extreme impacts of climate change, the target should be 1.5°C. Thus, the Paris Agreement was created and entered into force in 2016. In 2018, the IPCC released its Special Report of Global Warming of 1.5°C, bringing together the findings of multiple climate scientists to present the steps needed to maintain global average temperature rise below 1.5°C.

What does ‘1.5°C’ mean?

The 1.5°C pledge is the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with an upper limit of 2°C. This is an increase in the Earth’s average temperature, measured from a baseline average temperature between the mid-to-late nineteenth century, during the Industrial Revolution. The impacts of higher temperatures are already being felt, but it is thought that an increase above 1.5°C will be the tipping point for many natural systems.

An increase above 2°C could lead to:

• Severe heatwaves at least every five years for around 1.7 billion more people
• Several hundred million extra people exposed to poverty and other climate-related risks
• An average sea rise of another 10cm
• It could also cause coral reefs to decline as much as 99%
• A decline in global fishery catches by another 1.5 million tonnes
• 18% of insect species could be lost, along with 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates
• More erratic rainfall, with more intense rain on days it does fall, leading to up to 79 million people being exposed to the risk of flooding
• Water stress will increase, with more frequent and longer droughts. Certain countries will see a significant drop in groundwater, and therefore a drop in productivity in crop and livestock farming
• There may be an expansion in the range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes, increasing malaria transmission by 120%

The process

There is a long road to COP26, which started in December 2020 with the Climate Ambition Summit, co-hosted by the UN, UK and France. 75 world leaders announced new commitments. The next stage was the Climate & Development Ministerial in March 2021, where the challenges and priorities of implementing the Paris Climate Agreement were discussed. 

In April 2021, the Leaders Summit on Climate took place with 40 world leaders, convened by President Biden. Ambitious commitments were made by the US and Japan to reduce emissions by 2030. All members of the G7 were committed to net-zero by 2050. 

In May and June 2021, five events took place: 

• Petersberg Climate Dialogue, 
• P4G Seoul Summit, 
• 12th Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) – 6th Mission Innovation Ministerial, 
• the UN Climate Change Conference – Sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies, 
• and the G7 Leaders Summit. 

These all involved working to accelerate negotiation progress, developing public-private partnerships, promoting policies, and uniting leading democracies, to promote a greener future ahead of COP26. 

Between July 26th and 6th August, the Fifty-Fourth Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-54) and Working Group 1 Assessment Report 6 Approval Plenary takes place, providing key inputs from the Sixth Assessment Report into the negotiations at COP26.

In September 2021, four events will occur:

• 76th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA)
• Climate Week NYC
• Youth4Climate: Driving Ambition
• Pre-COP26

These involve the discussion of the challenges of recovering from COVID-19, a chance to showcase climate action, and allowing 400 young people (between 18-29) to discuss negotiations. The Pre-COP26 is mainly a preparatory meeting, involving the discussion of key political aspects of COP26 negotiations, and a chance to find solutions for any outstanding issues. 

During October 2021, there will be: 

• UN Biodiversity Conference, 
• Global Investment Summit: Building A Green Future Together, 
• World Bank Group/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings, 
• G20 Leaders’ Summit. 

These final events discuss the action needed to reverse biodiversity loss, the investment opportunities of net-zero across the UK, and the representation of shareholders on the world economic outlook and other issues. Finally, shared challenges between G20 countries are addressed, focusing on recovering from the pandemic and addressing climate change. 

COP26 begins immediately after the conclusion of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in November. 

General goals:

The general goals of COP26 are to:

1. Secure global net-zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach
2. Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats
3. Mobilise finance
4. Work together to deliver

To achieve these, countries must quickly phase out coal, reduce deforestation, increase the speed of the switch to electric vehicles, and encourage investment in renewables. To adapt better, counties must protect and restore their ecosystems, and increase defences, resilient infrastructure and effective warning systems to avoid loss of lives, homes and livelihoods. Developed countries must mobilise at least $100bn (£71.7bn) in climate finances per year, with international financial institutions playing their part. Finally, the Paris Rulebook (a set of rules to make the Paris Agreement operational) must be finalised and there must be an acceleration in action to tackle the climate crisis, especially through the collaboration of governments, civil society and businesses. 

UK goals

The UK government announced in November 2020 a £12billion government investment towards a 10 point plan:

1. Advancing offshore wind
2. Driving the growth of low carbon hydrogen
3. Delivering new and advanced nuclear power
4. Accelerating the shift to zero-emission vehicles
5. Green public transport, cycling and walking
6. ‘Jet zero’ and green ships
7. Greener buildings
8. Investing in carbon capture, usage and storage
9. Protecting our natural environment
10. Green finance and innovation

There are some success stories in the UK’s fight against climate change, with emissions down 49% since 1990, with the strongest record in reducing emissions over the last decade in the G20. We are the world leaders in offshore wind energy, with the power sector only accounting for 13% of all territorial emissions within the UK. Our Climate Change Act of 2008 was the first of its kind. 

There has been little progress in cutting emissions outside of the energy sectors, however, stifling our process to achieving the ambitious targets of a 78% reduction by 2035. Further plans, such as airport and road expansions and new oil and gas exploration within the North Sea, undermine the UK’s position as one of the leaders in the fight against climate change. 

One key pledge is to protect 30% of the UK for nature by 2030. When it comes to the number of species that have been lost, the UK ranks bottom among the G7 countries and is in the lowest 12% of 240 countries and territories. In 2019, it was reported that 41% of species within the UK were in decline and it is estimated that only 5% of the land is considered healthy habitat. 

Summary

• COP26 is a summit of the United Nations climate change conference, responsible for monitoring and reviewing the UNFCCC and its implementation. 
• The aim is to limit the increase in global average temperatures to below 1.5°C (with an upper limit of 2°C)
• The road to COP26 involves 17 summits, conferences, and meetings over 11 months, leading up to the COP26 event hosted by the UK in November
• The UK government has made advances and big promises to tackle climate change, but certain plans are undermining their efforts and may be setting the wrong example ahead of COP26.

Useful resources:

Hayhow D. B., et al., 2019. The State of Nature 2019. The State of Nature partnership.

RSPB. Biodiversity Loss: The UK’s global rank for levels of biodiversity. Retrieved from: https://www.rspb.org.uk/globalassets/downloads/projects/48398rspb-biodivesity-intactness-index-summary-report-v5-1-1.pdf

HM Government, 2020. The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution. Retrieved from: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936567/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf

Stroud, D. A., et al., 2021. International Treaties in Nature Conservation: A UK Perspective. Biodiversity Press

The official website of COP26: ukcop26.org